AAA: Round Rock 1, @ Sugar Land (HOU) 2 Round Rock: 4 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts Opponent: 6 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts Record: 7-10, 6 GB SP Gerson Garabito: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 2 HBP, 4 SO, 75 P / 51 S, 3.60 ERA RP Yerry Rodriguez: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA C Sam Huff: 2-3, 2B, BB, .333/.424/.647
Offseason pickup Gerson Garabito pitched well in his his AAA appearance in three years. According to the chart, he mixed a fastball (avg. 94, up to 95.9), cutter, sinker, slider, change, and curve.
Grant Anderson is back in AAA to make room for Leiter, and Brock Burke and his mangled hand were transferred to the 60-day IL.
Luis Ramirez carried a no-hitter into the 4th but would only collect two more outs.
Sebastian “Zavala” Walcott now has more walks (5) than hits (4). I haven’t run the numbers in a few days, but clearly his pitch discernment has improved from the opening series when nearly half his taken pitches were strikes.
Yosy Galan’s whiff rate might be the death of him, but he can put a charge into a ball.
Lo-A: Down East 4, Delmarva (BAL) 3 (10) Down East: 5 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts Opponent: 9 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 6-5, 3 GB
SP Brayan Mendoza: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 69 P / 43 S, 3.48 ERA RP Paul Bonzagni: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 2.70 ERA RP Luke Savage: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 4.50 ERA 1B Arturo Disla: 1-2, 2 BB, .259/.459/.296 SS Danyer Cueva: 1-3, BB, .184/.225/.211
Paul Bonzagni found the strike zone that had gone missing during his first appearance. Luke Savage is back in Down East after a quick visit to Hickory. I can see Arturo Disla hitting .259 with a .4xx OBP, but he’s not going to slug .296 all year.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Texas promoted 18-year-old righty to low-A Hickory, skipping the rookie league and short-season Spokane. Lefty Jacob Latz and OF JP Martinez were promoted from Hickory to high-A Down East. Hans Crouse walked none and fanned eight while allowing two runs in 6.2 innings for Hickory.
I’ve overlaid the Statcast illustrator images from his three AAA starts and colored in the whiffs. First, the fastball (swinging strikes in green). I should clarify his fastball location, which I’d previously described at heavier to his glove-side irrespective of batter handedness. In truth, he focuses on that location when aiming for the bottom half of the zone, but top-half pitches are more evenly spread horizontally. I was probably putting his fastballs and cutters (see below) into the same bucket.
Now, sliders (swinging strikes in red). As I’d mentioned, he had a bad tendency toward jerking his sliders too far glove-side, and it was readily apparent out of his hand, turning a putative put-away into a waste pitch. He’s grabbing the corner (or making batters think he will) much more frequently now, inducing more swings.
Cutter chart (no swinging strikes, as there’s only one). He doesn’t use it much against righties, instead crowding lefties with it. This chart is why I’ve mentioned his glove-side tendency on several occasions. Round Rock’s fancy new scoreboard has been slow to update pitch speeds, and his cutter’s cut is slight, often still tailing arm-side a little, so I was usually seeing and marking these as fastballs (or a fastball with a question mark because it looked a little strange).
Jack Leiter will make his MLB debut Thursday in Detroit. Much of what I wrote about Cole Winn two days ago could apply to Leiter. In the previous two pro seasons he only fleetingly resembled his former self or indicated he was heading toward his original projection.
Leiter has looked much, much better in 2024. And, like Winn, he’ll be taking the mound in a Texas uniform much more quickly than I think anyone expected heading into the season. Given the history, a not-unreasonable goal for 2024 was simply pitching well enough to ensure a 40 spot.
So, who is Jack Leiter now? His mix is a bit old-fashioned in an era when pitchers are throwing fewer four-seamers than ever. The 2023 starter with the most similar proportions of pitch types was Gerrit Cole.
Fastball – 56% of pitches, usually 94-97 MPH, topping at 98.2. The fastball is why he’s in Detroit. It’s a terrific blend of velocity, movement, and (critically in 2024) location, enabling him to miss a startling number of bats in the zone and get chases outside. He lives high and mostly glove-side, outside to righties and inside to lefties. Opponents are missing on 19% of all fastballs and 43% of swings. With that kind of success, Leiter isn’t automatically shifting to a slider with two strikes. Ten of his 14 swinging strikeouts and eight of 11 called Ks have come with the fastball. I wouldn’t say he’s pitching backwards, but whatever is going on early in the at-bat tends to set up a put-away heater.
Cutter – 8% of pitches, mostly 90-92, up to 94.3. This designation isn’t a arbitrary Statcast output. It’s definitely distinct from his slider and in fact mostly closely resembles the fastball. He doesn’t throw it frequently, but it’s been quietly effective. Hitters like to offer at it, and while they don’t miss much (only 10% of swings), they mostly just foul it off.
Slider – 23% of pitches, mostly 85-88, up to 88.9. It typically runs down-away to righties as you’d expect, and nearly every swinging strike has come in the low/glove-side quadrant or outside it. He’ll occasionally aim them high. It’s much improved and more consistent. I don’t have the data, but opponents’ 59% swing rate against them this season has to be higher than 2022-2023. Previously, his sliders more frequently announced their out-and-away destination straight out of his hand, and batters could safely take.
Curve – 10% of pitches, mostly 79-83, topping at 84.1. Not a critical of his repertoire so far in 2024, more a way to keep the enemy from locking in on something else. Batters typically lay off, and 75% of those taken have been balls. One-third of them have been used as a first-pitch strike-stealer. Of eight thrown, he’s received four calls, two balls, one swinging strike, and Ryan Ward’s homer off the roof of the Round Rock warehouse behind the 400 sign.
Change – 3% of pitches, 87-90. Entering his third pro year, the changeup remains something of an afterthought. He’s thrown seven in three games. They tend to run low and outside, so even if they’re not accomplishing much, he’s at least not putting them in wheelhouses as Cole Winn sometimes would when his command was at its ebb.
Leiter’s first-pitch choices have resembled his overall mix, with a few more curves at the expense of cutters. 53% of first pitches are strikes, about 5% fewer than the average in all Round Rock games this season. He tends to throw more balls but generates more misses when opponents swing.
An important caveat: Good as he’s been in 2024, opponents are hitting .392 and slugging .892 when they make contact. For his career, he’s allowed an extra 15 points of batting average and 74 points of slugging on contact versus the league. The difference in 2024 has been dramatically better location. Fewer walks and more strikeouts have yielded fewer runners on base when the occasionally very-hard contact occurs. Leiter will give up a high proportion of fly balls, and some of those will leave the yard. Like I said after his last AAA start, we can’t wish away his three homers. None of them were cheap. The average MLB homer in 2024 has scored 1.6 runs. Leiter’s average needs to be lower. He needs to minimize runners on base in front of that hard contact. Here’s my video from his first start in Round Rock.
SP Florencio Serrano: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 51 P / 25 S, 6.75 ERA RP Damian Mendoza: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Jonathan Hernandez: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 1.29 ERA
Florencio Serrano and Damian Mendoza pitching back-to-back for Round Rock in April 2024 wasn’t on my prediction list. Serrano has thrown mostly for high-A Hickory with short trips to Frisco, while Mendoza has spent only about 15 minutes of his career above low-A. They acquitted themselves well, combining for three runs in five innings.
SP Ryan Garcia: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 2 SO, 73 P / 38 S, 6.75 ERA RF Aaron Zavala: 2-3, 2B, BB, .250/.463/.429
Zavala has a couple of two-hit efforts in the three games since I wondered about his continued low-hit, high-walk propensity. He’s also drawn five walks in that span because of course he has.
SP Mitch Bratt: 4.1 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 76 P / 49 S, 11.05 ERA RP Jacob Maton: 2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 2.25 ERA RP Yohanse Morel: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 7.50 ERA LF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5, .207/.324/.376 DH Yosy Galan: 2-5, HR (2), .238/.227/.571
At long last, an “ordinary” solid day at the plate that doesn’t require a comparison or backstory. Yosy Galan launched his second homer, and because he has a sac fly but no walks yet, his OBP is lower than his batting average. Mitch Bratt rebounded nicely from a an opening-start mauling.
IF Cam Cauley is on Hickory’s 7-day IL.
Lo-A: Down East 1, Delmarva (BAL) 0 Down East: 2 hits, 3 walks, 12 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 5-5, 3 GB
SP Ryan Lobus: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 50 P / 33 S, 0.00 ERA RP Justin Sanchez: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 2.45 ERA RP Bryan Magdaleno: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
Lobus Sanchez & Magdaleno PLLC shut out the Shorebirds. At 23, the undrafted Lobus is of an age at which one can almost treat him like a late-round hitter drafted out of college. He needs to show something quickly. So far so good: three scoreless appearances, one walk, seven strikeouts in 6.2 IP.
Today’s Starters AAA: White AA: B. Anderson Hi-A: Ramirez Lo-A: B. Mendoza
Five Years Ago Yesterday Tyler Phillips threw seven scoreless for high-A Down East, and Emmanuel Clase covered the final two innings while touching 101 with the fastball.
720 days ago, while cruising through one of his better outings, Cole Winn took a sharp comebacker off the inside of his foot. From my viewpoint at the time, the incident was scary but inconsequential. He was removed for precautionary reasons but walked to the dugout without difficulty. He would not miss a start; indeed, he next pitched on four days rest for the first time that season. A summer promotion to the big-league rotation beckoned.
The consequences were in fact severe. For whatever reasons, the incident ruined his ability to retire batters with any consistency. He didn’t lose any velocity, nor did any particular pitch become useless, but basic control often abandoned him, as did command within the zone. He had intermittent success, sometimes an entire outing’s worth, but in general, success was an inning-to-inning or even pitch-to-pitch proposition. At its onset, I pointed out a vaguely similar stretch, when after a terrific spring of 2019 he struggled mightily at low-A Hickory but found himself toward the end of the season. This time, the recovery never arrived. Since the incident, opponents have batted .275/.392/.457 against him in AAA. In 20 of 57 outings, he allowed at least as many runs as innings pitched. One of every six batters reached on a walk or HBP.
I don’t pretend to know what’s going on in the head’s of pro athletes. I don’t know if Cole Winn ever stared up at the ceiling late at night after one of his rougher outings, wondering about his future. I do know I have stared up at the ceiling late at night after one of his rougher outings, wondering about his future. Imagine being a step from the pinnacle and finding you can’t do what you’ve done virtually your whole life. Imagine having a terrible outing, resting, throwing on the side, working with coaches, maybe working with a mental health coach, waiting an entire week for your next chance, and then being pulled after six runs and 37 pitches in the 1st. And then going through the process again, and again.
Whenever a Texas transaction involving the 40-man roster is impending, I glance at the list to ponder who might be designated for assignment. At no point in the last two years had I ever thought Winn’s day was at hand, but last month I expressed the possibility of reaching that point, even though he has an option in 2025. His March in Surprise didn’t allay any concerns, after all. Eventually, a player has to appear as if he can contribute.
Somehow, barely two weeks into the regular season, Winn is a Major Leaguer. He suddenly looked much better in Round Rock, not always successful but certainly with better control and command that enabled him to fight the opposition instead of himself. Then, in a one-inning stint on Thursday, he looked better than I’ve ever seen. I broached the idea of an eventual callup pending further success. The Rangers instead said “Cole baby, whatcha doin’ this weekend?” Or words to that effect.
I don’t have a list of MLB debuts that made me the happiest (a project for another day, perhaps), but Winn has to be in the top five. I’d guess I’ve seen him person more than any other pitcher except perhaps Martin Perez. Whatever else happens, he and everybody with a stake in his success went through an awful lot to get here.
SP Danny Duffy: 1.1 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 48 P / 28 S, 3.12 ERA RF Trevor Hauver: 2-3, HR (1), .308/.408/.436
Texas promoted 25-year-old righty Bryan Chi from Hickory prior to the game. Chi was successful in low-A last year, but this was a “we need a guy” promotion. Typically, such players aren’t really ready for the level but hopefully can provide some service and also have the fortitude to handle what could be a seriously adverse situation. His day began by stranding three bequeathed runners in the 3rd. After escaping a two-runner 4th, his 5th was catastrophe: 30 pitches and eight runs without a batter retired.
In 2023, reliever Grant Wolfram was quite successful in AA (2.02 ERA with matching peripherals) but found AAA a daunting challenge (10.80 ERA, 26 runners in 13.1 innings). In his first outing back in AAA, he allowed two runs in 2.2 innings but retired seven of nine batters, so we’ll take it.
AA: Frisco 10, Corpus Christi (HOU) 2 Frisco: 11 hits, 8 walks, 5 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Record: 7-2, tied for first
SP Nick Krauth: 6 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 72 P / 49 S, 6.52 ERA RP Tyler Owens: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 5.40 ERA LF Aaron Zavala: 0-2, 3 BB CF Kellen Strahm: 2-4, 2 2B RF Josh Hatcher: 3-5 3B Cody Freeman: 3-4, 2B
Frisco took five of six from Corpus by an aggregate score of 40-20. Liam Hicks was held hitless for the second time but managed a walk and has reached safely in all nine games.
SP Brock Porter: 3 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 3 SO, 62 P / 29 S, 3.60 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 3 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.42 ERA DH Yeison Morrobel: 2-4, 2B, BB C Tucker Mitchell: 1-5, HR (1) SS Sebastian Walcott: 2-5, 2B LF Yosy Galan: 1-2, HR (1)
Hallelujah. Ten runs. 17 runners, including at least one in seven of eight innings.
Sebastian Walcott had his first two-hit game and is trending sharply away from the frightening ball-strike data I provided last week.
Walcott’s first five games: 77% strike rate, 30% swinging strike rate, 51% swinging strike rate on swings, 56% ball rate on pitches taken. Four games since then: 60% strike rate, 4% swinging strike rate, 11% swinging strike rate on swings, 59% ball rate on pitches taken.
2B Ben Blackwell drew three walks. RF Anthony Gutierrez doubled. CF Daniel Mateo reach on two singles and an HBP. Tucker Mitchell’s homer, Hickory’s first of the season, was a grand slam.
Top pitching prospect Brock Porter missed on more than half his pitches for a second straight outing but didn’t suffer too badly. Per observer Mark Parker, he emphasized the curve, and the fastball was mostly 89-91, not the digits you want to see. However, he was in that range when I saw him last year in Surprise, and he regained velocity as the season progressed.
Skylar Hales entered the 9th and reached to within a strike of a 1-2-3 conclusion. He left with five runs on the board as Jersey Shore collected six consecutive hits, three of them cheapies. Life as a reliever.
Lo-A: Down East 4, @ Carolina (MIL) 6 Down East: 5 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts Opponent: 13 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 4-5, 4 GB
SP Luis Valdez: 3 IP, 6 H (1 HR), 4 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 50 P / 34 S, 5.40 ERA 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-5, HR (3)
Gleider Figuereo is one-third of the way to his 2023 homer total after just nine games. Well-regarded 1B/OF Marcos Torres is batting .040 with a 59% strikeout rate.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Nashville’s Willie Calhoun improved to .285/.400/.500 with a homer and two singles.
The cascading effects of Austin Pruitt’s promotion are reliever Grant Wolfram up from Frisco to Round Rock and Seth Clark from Hickory to Frisco. Also, righty Tim Brennan and 40-man reliever Antoine Kelly are on the 7-day IL.
Justin Foscue’s previous two IL stints for oblique injuries were seven weeks back in 2021 and a precautionary week-plus in 2022. The 2024 version will be at least 60 days.
SP Adrian Sampson: 4.2 IP, 10 H (1 HR), 9 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 79 P / 49 S, 7.90 ERA C Sam Huff: 1-4, HR (3), .310/.383/.677
Would you believe Adrian Sampson retired nine of the first ten batters? Next, an eight-run 4th that a younger pitcher might not have been allowed to complete. Sam Huff hit a big-boy homer: 444 feet halfway up the berm beyond deep left-center.
AA: Frisco 10, Corpus Christi (HOU) 3 Frisco: 11 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 6-2, tied for first
SP Emiliano Teodo: 4 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 5 SO, 63 P / 34 S, 6.75 ERA RP Ricky DeVito: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 15.00 ERA LF Aaron Zavala: 2-4, HR (1), BB C Liam Hicks: 2-5 RF Abi Ortiz: 2-4, 2B 3B Cody Freeman: 2-4, 2B 2B Frainyer Chavez: 2-4, 2B
“Emiliano Teodo allowed six fewer runs than future HOFer Justin Verlander” isn’t a sentence I expected to type in 2024, but here we are.
Teodo cruised through three, but in the 4th he was plunked in the cheek by a throw from the plate ump. Teodo was facing him but (I think) looking at his hands. The impact was more a glancing blow, but still, a baseball to the face. After a delay, Teodo persevered through missing control, issuing five consecutive balls, walking three, and unleashing a wild pitch. He completed the inning and his night without allowing a hit. Teodo’s curve was especially effective, accounting for seven swinging strikes. He also made a rangy grab of a short pop toward the home dugout.
Frisco pinned all six on Verlander in the 3rd. Freeman single, Chavez double, Zavala ROE, Hicks single, Lowe walk, Ortiz double, Josh Hatcher single.
Nathaniel Lowe, looking patently ridiculous in his cream Riders top and blindingly white Rangers pants, was 0-2 with a walk.
SP Aidan Curry: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 7 SO, 73 P / 48 S, 3.38 ERA 1B Quincy Scott: 2-4
Is eight runs in eight games the worst-ever offensive stretch for any Texas minor league club? Probably not, but I can’t recall anything worse. (Confirming this would be an arduous task I won’t undertake unless the malaise extends deep into April. Don’t make me do this, Hickory.)
In MLB, eight-game stretches averaging under one run per game aren’t that uncommon in the dead-ball era. More recently, Houston’s 1963 club holds the dubious record of two runs during eight games in June 1963. For an uncommonly optimistic example, the 2010 Phils scored seven in eight games in late May. They won the division with a 97-65 record.
The squad has several new hitters who didn’t exactly tear up low-A, but this is beyond comprehension. Cam Cauley (.231/.231/.269) leads the team with a .500 OPS. Last year’s offense had the same hitting coach (Drew Sannes) and was better than average. I don’t imagine he’s enjoyed the last week.
Lo-A: Down East 5, @ Carolina (MIL) 7 Down East: 8 hits, 9 walks, 13 strikeouts Opponent: 10 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts Record: 4-4, 3 GB
Josh Trentadue is younger than Adrian Sampson and pulled after 27 pitches and four runs in the 4th. Replacement Alberto Mota would surrender three of his own that inning. 19-year-old Kolton Curtis, the one teen-aged pitched on the staff, was formidable again.
Gleider Figuereo is pacing the offense with a .227/.485/.581 line.
Five Years Ago Yesterday I will remember the most absurdly obscure names to play in the Texas system (at the expense of far more important matters), but one that escapes me is Phillips Valdez, who threw 78 innings for Nashville and 16 for the Rangers in 2019. I even saw him pitch in person for Albuquerque last August and didn’t make the connection. According to me five years ago, he threw 4.2 modestly effective innings for Nashville in a 5-3 loss. I’m still skeptical.
PCL umpire James Jean, who called the plate in Round Rock last night, would make a fine replacement for Angel Hernandez. I would love to know the accuracy scores of AAA umps versus the worst in in the Majors. One interesting aspect of the challenge system is confirmation that most umps are quite good at their jobs. A sizable percentage of overturned calls are close enough to justify the ump’s decision. Very few are embarrassing. I’ve never seen an overturned call on a “strike” six inches off the plate. I’m very strongly in favor of automated calls in the Majors, but not because I think most umps are incompetent. And while I’d prefer the computer handling everything, the challenge system would afford the opportunity to have Hernandez publicly humiliated, assuming he hangs around long enough to see it implemented, and assuming he’s capable of that emotion.
SP Jack Leiter: 6 IP, 6 H (3 HR), 3 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 10 SO, 83 P / 53 S, 3.77 ERA 1B Dustin Harris: 2-4, .350/.372/.600
Jack Leiter surrendered homers on three of his first 18 pitches, yet I came away very pleased with his outing. Let’s get the bad news out of the way first.
The homers came on a fastball, slider, and curve. The fastball to a righty clipped the inside corner above the belt, not where Leiter has lived in 2024 but not a terrible location (absent info about the hitter’s tendencies). The slider was unique, the only one high and arm-side of 26 thrown. The curve, well, it was a cookie, but context is key. As a rule, minor league hitters hate early curves. The swing rate on first-pitch curves in Round Rock’s games so far is only 22%, and only 20% of swings are put into play. Until hitters adjust, it’s a pretty safe way for a pitcher to grab a favorable count. Instead, OKC’s Ryan Ward bounced Leiter’s curve off the warehouse roof well beyond the 400 sign.
Leiter’s location wasn’t as sharp in the first two innings. In the 3rd, he recovered the impressive command of his first start, focusing on the glove-side edge of the plate (irrespective of batter handedness). Leiter tallied 18 swinging strikes, 13 with the fastball, which peaked at 98.2 MPH and 20″ of induced vertical break. OKC missed an enormous 59% of fastballs offered at. The Baseball Club (remember, they don’t have a nickname) even missed on 44% of in-zone fastballs, plus all of the eight outside the zone. That’s domination.
The slider wasn’t as effective but had several strong moments. The curve and change are mostly just along for the ride. This was an old-fashioned power performance. The pitch mix looks relieverish, but let’s let leave that aside for now. Ten strikeouts, zero walks (and a hit batter). A ratio of 6.25 Ks per BB/HBP for the season. We can’t wish away the homers, but on the whole, Leiter performed well again, and his 2024 has been highly encouraging.
I don’t have video because I left my camera battery at home, but Texas’s player development twitter account and the Express have come through.
AA: Frisco 7, Corpus Christi (HOU) 1 Frisco: 8 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 7 walks, 14 strikeouts Record: 5-2, tied for first
SP Dane Acker: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 75 P / 43 S, 1.04 ERA RP Robby Ahlstrom: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2.08 ERA RF Abi Ortiz: 2-3, 2B, BB
Frisco has a bunch of holdovers from 2023 trying to prove they deserve a locker in Round Rock. Among them are Dane Acker and Robby Ahlstrom, both off to strong starts.
The offense spread out the hits; only Ortiz had two. Ortiz has taken well to AA so far, batting .333/.500/.625 with five extra-base hits in seven games and more walks (8) than strikeouts (6).
With a walk in four trips to the plate, Aaron Zavala now has more combined walks and HBPs (206) than hits (205) in his career. Only three other Rangers farmhands with more than 500 career plate appearances during 2007-2024 share that distinction: current players Jayce Easley and Ian Moller, plus IF Nick Vickerson from years gone by. Those that have done so in single seasons in the Majors have tended to be older, all-or-nothing types, and/or in steep decline: Rickey Henderson, Adam Dunn, Yasmani Grandal recently.
SP Joseph Montalvo: 4.1 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 71 P / 45 S, 2.08 ERA RP Larson Kindreich: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
Hickory was shut out for the third time in six games and fell to 0.5 runs per game for the season. Sebastian Walcott drew his first walk. Hi-A: Hickory 5, Jersey Shore (PHI) 0 (7) Hickory: 5 hits, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts Record: 2-5, 3 GB
SP Winston Santos: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 78 P / 53 S, 0.84 ERA RP Seth Clark: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA C Tucker Mitchell: 1-3, 2B SS Sebastian Walcott: 1-3, 3B DH Quincy Scott: 1-2, BB
An onslaught! Hickory scored three in the 1st, equaling its output in the first six games combined. Doubles by Tucker Mitchell and Quincy Scott plated the runs. Later, Sebastian Walcott tripled and scored on a double-play grounder, and Ben Blackwell advanced a base at a time on a walk, steal, wild pitch, and sac fly.
Winston Santos offered a second consecutive strong start. Last year, Santos was the talk of Surprise (talk of the back fields, at least) but just didn’t miss many bats and surrendered a bunch of extra-base hits. In 2024, hope of a rebound is panning out so far.
Lo-A: Down East 0, @ Carolina (MIL) 6 (7) Down East: 2 hits, 2 walks, 12 strikeouts Opponent: 7 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts
SP Kyle Larsen: 3 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 51 P / 34 S, 9.00 ERA RP Jose Gonzalez: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA Lo-A: Down East 0, @ Carolina (MIL) 2 (7) Down East: 2 hits, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts Opponent: 3 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 4-3, 2 GB
SP Wilian Bormie: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 55 P / 29 S, 4.05 ERA RP Brayan Mendoza: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1.50 ERA
Oh, dear. Down East caught whatever has been afflicting Hickory, getting shut out on four hits across 14 innings.
Sean Bass of The Ticket, Michael Tepid and I talk Texas’s opening two weeks including Cody Bradford and Jared Walsh, and early farm impressions (Winn, Leiter, Walcott, Zavala, Ortiz, more). Link on top-right on banner.
SP Owen White: 4 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 77 P / 51 S, 7.30 ERA RP Daniel Robert: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 6.75 ERA RP Marc Church: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 3.86 ERA RP Cole Winn: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.68 ERA C Sam Huff: 2-4, .324/.410/.676
Brought into the 9th to air it out, Cole Winn began with a 92 MPH cutter, his fastest in two-plus seasons in AAA, and fanned two batters on 98 MPH fastballs, also both faster than anything he’d previously thrown. A fly to right concluded his evening. He added one strike-grabbing curve and a splitter. If you put that version of Winn in a Major League ballpark, he’d get people out.
Technically, this isn’t his first time in this role, as he threw a single inning on Sunday, but that was the 6th inning of a getaway day, and he wasn’t as successful. The outing just didn’t resonate. Plus, I saw last night in person.
So, where has this been, or to put another way, why hadn’t the Rangers tried him in this role before, given his beyond-lengthy struggles? I don’t speak for the Rangers, but my answers are tied to his fastball and overall mix. One, his fastball was his worst pitch last year. His strike rate was poor, and a good many that found the plate were sent back hard the other direction. Two, he’s always had a deep repertoire with everything grading at least average when he was in better form. Indeed, some of the attempted fixes have involved broadening and tweaking his pitch mix even more, such as sliders transforming into cutters and sweepers, and this year’s splitter.
When I saw him two weeks ago, he wasn’t outstanding but looked like he was taking the fight to the competition instead of fighting himself. Hopefully, the positive trend will continue, and for the first time in a long while, we can talk about the possibility of his MLB debut.
Owen White had his moments. His average fastball is up a full tick over last year (94.0 four-seamer, 93.7 sinker), and he’s no longer dipping down into the upper 80s. His overall strike rate is also much improved, although the occasional control lapses have resulted in a walk/HBP rate identical to 2023.
Marc Church was who’s been been in AAA: wipeout slider, erratic fastball.
Ricky Vanasco shut the door for OKC. After a Sandro Fabian walk with two out, Jax Biggers hit a fly that could have cleared the fence in August (99.1 MPH, 31 degrees), but on a cool, late evening in April, it was a just a long out.
SP Gerson Garabito: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 SO, 75 P / 47 S, 2.08 ERA RP Tyler Owens: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
Whoson Whatawito? Okay, Garabito is a 28-year-old Dominican who came up with the Royals and also pitched with the Giants for a season. He’d been out of the MLB system since late 2021. Older reports regarded him as a mid-tier prospect with a chance at the back end of a rotation or mid-relief role. The curve mentioned in these reports has taken on a slidery shape. Texas signed him last December and either backdated the transactional entry or I missed it, because he did not ring a bell until very recently. Garabito has a 3.56 ERA in 667 minor league innings.
1-2-3 hitters Aaron Zavala, Laim Hicks, and Abi Ortiz were all 0-3 with two walks.
Five Years Ago Yesterday Jacob Latz, Tai Tiedemann, and Nick Snyder combined for a Hickory-record 17 strikeouts in 6-1 victory over Kannapolis. Sam Huff homered. Latz is a Ranger today. Snyder pitched small portions of 2021 and 2022 with the Rangers but has spent much of the past four-plus seasons on the shelf, and he’s currently on Philly’s minor league 60-day IL. Tiedemann pitched briefly for indy Frederick last year after becoming a free agent following 2022.
SP Tim Brennan: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 SO, 66 P / 40 S, 3.24 ERA RP Jonathan Hernandez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
The Express swept the doubleheader. Michael Lorenzen had his least successful rehab outing, walking five. The changeup was effective, but the slider wasn’t getting him anywhere. Tim Brennan was more effective in his second start back from elbow surgery. He’s still seeking the reestablish his once-terrific control. Jonathan Hernandez’s velocity was down two ticks across the board, but he worked a scoreless 5th.
Sam Huff knocked a mild homer by his standards: 98 off the bat, 359 feet. In the early going, Huff is hitting as hard as ever, but, as in 2023, the impact is blunted by a below-average launch angle. On the other hand, he’s slugging .700, so maybe I should lay off. Dustin Harris has started five consecutive games at third.
In the nightcap, the offense was nearly silent until the 6th when six consecutive hitters reached with two out.
OKC no longer has a “Dodgers” nickname nor a replacement. For 2024, they are known simply as Oklahoma City Baseball Club and will be rechristened next year. They were assimilated into the Diamond Baseball Holdings borg in 2021, and the current marketing trend is to build an identity separate from the parent club.
AA: Frisco 6, Corpus Christi (HOU) 5 Frisco: 6 hits, 12 walks, 16 strikeouts Opponent: 12 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts Record: 4-1, tied for first
SP Ben Anderson: 3.2 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 59 P / 40 S, 1.93 ERA RP Andy Rodriguez: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 6.75 ERA CF Kellen Strahm: 1-3, 2 BB, SB (1) C Liam Hicks: 2-5 1B Abi Ortiz: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB SS Max Acosta: 1-3, 2 BB
Frisco scored three in the 9th. Abi Ortiz doubled, and Cody Freeman struck out but reached first on a passed ball. Max Acosta walked, pinch-hitter Devin Hurdle singled home two, and after a Frainyer Chavez walk, Geisel Cepeda was hit by a pitch to bring in the winning run.
Ben Anderson has been around since 2019 as a 13th-round pick, but because of covid and three consecutive injury-shortened seasons, he hasn’t pitched much and I don’t know much about him.
SP Luis Ramirez: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 58 P / 36 S, 0.00 ERA RP Jackson Kelley: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Josh Gessner: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Skylar Hales: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
Hickory scored the game’s only run when Anthony Gutierrez beat out a deep grounder to short. Pinch-runner Jayce Easley, who began the inning at second, never stopped running and scored as Jersey Shore protested the call at first. Four Crawdads combined for a four-hit shutout topped by Skylar Hales’ three strikeouts of eight batters.
I’m going to renege on yesterday’s comment that I’d wait before analyzing Sebastian Walcott’s slow start, because it isn’t the type of random dry spell that will afflict every hitter eventually. He’s 1-for-19 with no walks and nine strikeouts. A look under the hood confirms the intensity of his early struggles. 30% of all his pitches and 51% of his swings have resulted in a swinging strike. Those are exceedingly high figures. Further, only 56% of his taken pitches have resulted in a ball. (I don’t know the high-A rate, but in AAA a common range is 65%-75%.) So, in his case, there’s no “at least he’s drawing walks” fallback. Also, four of his ten balls in play have been infield pops. Absolutely nothing is in his favor right now. I’m not going to throw out any adjectives like “alarming” or “scary” yet because it’s early, and he endured a similar stretch in rookie ball last year (2-for-28 with 18 strikeouts across seven late-July games) and recovered.
I guess the one thing in Walcott’s favor is he has company, as Hickory’s offense is the worst in pro ball: 0.6 runs per game and a .138/.190/.164 line.
Lo-A: Down East 6, @ Carolina (MIL) 7 Down East: 9 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts Opponent: 12 hits, 7 walks, 5 strikeouts Record: 4-1, 1 GB
SP Paul Bonzagni: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 0 SO, 56 P / 32 S, 6.75 ERA SS Echedry Vargas: 1-2, 2B, HBP, SB (1) 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-2, 3 BB RF Thomas Specht: 1-3, 2B, BB, SB (1)
Echedry Vargas doubled down the opposite line in his first at-bat. Next, he was hit on the hand, and after an inning, he was replaced. Vargas has a funky .158/.191/.421 line with more extra-base hits (3) than strikeouts (2).
Grapevine native Paul Bonzagni started infrequently in college, only nine of 41 appearances at Weatherford College and Southern Illinois, so I wasn’t expecting to see him in the rotation.
Today’s Starters AAA: White AA: Garabito
Five Years Ago Yesterday Wei-Chieh Huang started for Frisco, and I called April 10th “awfully early for a ‘bullpen start.'” Those were the days. Hickory’s Hans Crouse missed 19 bats en route to a scoreless five innings and nine strikeouts.
SP Ryan Garcia: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 69 P / 39 S, 9.00 ERA RP Aidan Anderson: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Grant Wolfram: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA C Liam Hicks: 2-4 1B Abimelec Ortiz: 1-3, HR (1), BB
The bullpen walked the bases loaded in the 6th but escaped unharmed. Otherwise, it didn’t allow a single runner in lengthy relief of Ryan Garcia.
SP Mitch Bratt: 3 IP, 8 H (1 HR), 7 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 4 SO, 70 P / 48 S, 21.00 ERA RP Bryan Chi: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Adrian Rodriguez: 2 IP, 1 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 4.50 ERA RP Yohanse Morel: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 6.00 ERA SS Cam Cauley: 3-4, 2B CF Anthony Gutierrez: 2-4, 2B
Whew. The good news is a Hickory home game was televised for the first time. The bad news is the same thing. Of 120 minor league teams, Hickory ranks last in scoring (0.5 runs/game) and slugging (.172) and 119th in average (.148) and OBP (.198). Back in 2021, both Hickory and Down East ranked among the minors’ worst offenses in the opening month but finished mid-pack in their respective leagues, so don’t fret yet.
Cam Cauley doubled deep to right-center and singled twice. Sebastian Walcott was 0-4 with three strikeouts. Since I’m the one who harps on over-analyzing short-term trends, I’m going to wait before saying more about him.
Mitch Bratt has a sub-.300 OBP in each of three previous pro seasons, but he’s going to have to climb down from .643 after last night. Three others combined for six innings of one-run ball.
Lo-A: Down East 4, @ Carolina (MIL) 1 Down East: 9 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts Opponent: 5 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts Record: 4-0, tied for first
SP Kohl Drake: 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 55 P / 40 S, 0.00 ERA RP Ryan Lobus: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA RP Luke Savage: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 6.00 ERA 2B Echedry Vargas: 1-5, HR (1) 3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-3, 3B, BB C Julian Brock: 2-4 SS Danyer Cueva, 2-4, 2B, SB (2)
Down East grabbed a permanent lead in the 1st when Gleider Figuereo tripled, Julian Brock singled, and Danyer Cueva doubled with two out.
2B Echedry Vargas hit his first full-season homer. More should be forthcoming, as he knocked a league-high 11 last year in the complex league in 52 games.
The Mudcats squandered their best chance in the 8th. 2023 10th-rounder Case Matter walked four of five batters, leaving undrafted TCU alum Luke Savage a two-run lead but three on board. CF Marcos Torres tracked down a short liner, and groundout ended the inning without further damage.
Today’s Starters AAA: Lorenzen / Brennan AA: B. Anderson Hi-A: Ramirez Lo-A: TBA
Five Years Ago Yesterday Visiting Round Rock for the first time since an affiliation change. Nashville defeated the Express 3-1 behind effective if walk-heavy outings from Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. My takeaway from Hearn’s outing was that he looked promising overall but probably wouldn’t have escaped without serious damage had he pitched similarly at the Major League level, and when he was called up soon after for an emergency start, he didn’t. Unfortunately, Hearn’s problem in his MLB debut wasn’t just control but elbow tightness.
Pitching for Astros-affiliated Round Rock was Forrest Whitley, who has thrown only 268 pro innings since being drafted in 2016, and whose transaction list includes nine instances of “injured list.”
