Scott Lucas

Evan Grant wrote the following about Jordan Montgomery’s rehab outing yesterday: “Montgomery struggled through an outing with Triple-A Round Rock Saturday evening that was scheduled for five innings and about 75 pitches. He,instead lasted just 2 ⅔ innings against Las Vegas, allowing seven hits and six runs. More concerning: His velocity stepped backwards. Montgomery averaged only 90.1 mph with the fastball, down 1.7 mph from his previous five rehab outings. The Rangers had hoped to see it tick closer to 93 mph.” (emphasis added)

Grant is wrong about the velocity loss, but that’s not his fault. In the player breakdown section of the AAA Statcast gameday feed, there’s a velocity section and sub-columns called “Yr-Avg” and “+/-,” which show “91.8” and “-1.7,” respectively. The problem is that 91.8 is not Montgomery’s fastball (specifically sinker) average in Round Rock in 2026, it’s his average in 2024 as an Arizona Diamondback. It’s a little annoying, but Statcast is programmed to use MLB data for comparison purposes, even if the pitcher hasn’t played in MLB in 2026, and even if the pitcher has minimal experience in the Majors (like Winston Santos). 

There’s no way for Evan or anyone to know this just from looking at the gamefeed. I know mainly because of Josh Sborz, who isn’t throwing as hard as year’s past but somehow has a 95.1 average fastball velocity if you peruse the gamefeed from one of his outings. That caught my eye earlier this year, and I discovered that the 95.1 is Sborz’s fastball average from 2024, the last time he appeared in the Majors.  
As for the Rangers hoping to see closer to 93 from Montgomery, I have nothing encouraging to offer. Montgomery’s sinkers in three prior AAA outings averaged 89.7, 90.6 and 90.1. 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 1, Las Vegas (ATH) 8
Round Rock: 3 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 10-10, 5 GB, 41-54 overall

SP Jordan Montgomery: 2.2 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 6 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 53 P / 33 S, 6.94 ERA
RP Austin Roberts: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 6.00 ERA

So: Montgomery. For two innings he cruised, needing only 19 pitches to retire six batters in order. I had a Narrative ready: “Montgomery doesn’t throw as hard as he used to, but he doesn’t really need to. He can put the ball where he wants, get ahead and have batters guessing in unfavorable counts.” Then, a 34-pitch, seven-hit, six-run 3rd.  

I was focused on Montgomery’s pitch selection and sequencing, but he tricked me by throwing first-pitch fastballs to his first eight opponents. That’s not the usual Montgomery experience, but they were well-located, generating six strikes. Then, Montgomery dealt a first-pitch curve to weak-hitting #9 hitter Jack Winkler, who drove it to center for a single. Then, Max Muncy crushed a first-pitch change for a homer. That is not the usual AAA experience, but credit the Aviators for hopping on a couple of mid-mid offspeeds intended as strike-stealers. Montgomery didn’t walk anyone but lost the precision on his location, losing the borders that made such quick work of the earlier innings. 

I don’t want to fret too much about a Triple A rehab, but at the same time, we’ve reached the point where the performance actually matters, and the organization has to be deciding on what role he can serve and when. Revisiting the velocity, It’s not as though I can predict the future, but I’ve been under an assumption that he’s just someone who has a 90 MPH fastball now. He could be a decent back-of-rotation option but absolutely has to hit his spots. 


AA: Frisco 4, Tulsa (LAD) 3
Frisco: 11 hits, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 11-9, 1 GB, 50-38 overall

SP Cody Bradford: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 37 P / 27 S, 3.00 ERA
RP Dalton Pence: 4 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 2.49 ERA
DH Sebastian Walcott: 2-4
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-4, HR (13), .285/.361/.474
LF Yeison Morrobel: 1-3, HR (1)

Cody Bradford had the control that was missing from his previous rehab and fanned four of seven batters. He wasn’t missing badly last time, just consistently off enough for an ugly 33% strike rate. Sebastian Walcott slapped a grounder through the right side for a single and lined earnestly to left for another. He also lined squarely at the midsection of pitcher Adam Serwinowski, who caught it with some combination of glove and torso. 


Hi-A: Hub City 7, Greensboro (PIT) 10
Hub City: 12 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 13 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 6-17, 9 GB, 40-49 overall

SP Caden Scarborough: 2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 34 P / 26 S, 3.85 ERA
RP AJ Russell: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 2.92 ERA
RP Owen Proksch: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 1.98 ERA
3B Gleider Figuereo: 3-4, 2B, HR (14), BB, .240/.341/.440
C Arturo De Freitas: 3-4, 2B, HR (1)

On another sweltering night, the teams combined for six homers following Friday’s eight. Greensboro leadoff hitter Sammy Stafura knocked a 2-2 pitch from Caden Scarborough beyond the 411′ sign in right-center. Scarborough flung high fastballs past the next two batters for strikeouts and concluded his short evening with a third. 

I wrote the following when Texas traded away Hub City catcher Ben Hartl for reliever Ben Peoples: “Texas was already very light on catching in the A levels… but, well, who cares. The Rangers can probably sign someone of similar caliber from an indy league if they want.” Five days later, Texas bought the contract of catcher Arturo De Freitas from Quebec of the Frontier League, where he was hitting .311/.423/.602. He’d been released from Philadelphia’s system in August 2024. In three games, he’s collected three extra-base hits and thrown out four of nine runners. I’d like to thank the Rangers for giving me the opportunity to look like I know what I’m talking about. 


Lo-A: Hickory 5, Wilson (MIL) 4
Hickory: 7 hits, 5 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 17-6, 4 G up, 51-36 overall

SP Jormy Nivar: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 53 P / 33 S, 2.63 ERA
RP JD McReynolds: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 3.60 ERA
RP Geury Rodriguez: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.09 ERA
RP Louis Marinaro: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 4.46 ERA
DH Pablo Guerrero: 2-4, HR (1), .391/.500/.565
CF Jamaurion McQueen: 0-1, 2 BB, HBP, SB (1)

Nivar made only his second start but has been on what passes for a low-level starter’s workload all season, dealing three to five innings once per week. McQueen was last year’s final pick but paid $280,000, equivalent to slot for a seventh-rounder. He batted .361/.465/.526 in 48 games at the complex, and while I wouldn’t put much emphasis on those numbers per se, they do show his promotion was easily justified. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: unlisted, maybe Stephan
AA: Townsend
Hi-A: Perry
Lo-A: Keaney

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas reinstated catcher Huff from the 60-day IL by optioning him to Frisco, and to make room, the Rangers surprisingly designated righty Tyler Phillips for assignment. “Always more control than command, his introduction to AA in 2019 was predictably on the rough side. Still, Phillips was added to the 40-man roster after 2019. Because of covid and a minor elbow injury, he’d pitched only 25 innings since being added. In 2021, his first two starts seemed to offer some of the improvements needed to reach the big leagues, but his most recent eight outings were so far removed from his historical results that they defy belief: 18 walks, five homers, 18 other hits allowed in just 16.1 innings. In the midst of that span, certainly not on merit, he was curiously promoted to AAA.” He would be claimed by his hometown Phils and reach the Majors three years later, albeit without much success. Phillips is now thriving as a reliever with the Marlins (although with peripherals not nearly matching his low ERA). While the manner of Phillips’ departure from Texas was startling, his latter-day success isn’t a mark against the Rangers. Some pitchers take longer to develop than can be reasonably accommodated under the reserve system. 

Transactions

Reliever Jakob Junis is active, joined by Jose Corniell, who was to start in Round Rock tonight. Relievers Emiliano Teodo and Gavin Collyer were optioned. 

Starters Of The (Partial) Year

Here’s a quick, stat-driven rundown of Texas’s best MiLB performers so far. But first, a little note:

At the three full-season levels below AAA, offense is higher than it has ever been in my 20 years on the beast, higher than any other season under the modern classification system (1990), higher than any season since at least 1970, as far back as I checked. Wild times. 

1. Dalton Pence


2. AJ Russell


3. Alejandro Chiquillo 


Caden Scarborough has only 23 innings but is Chiquillo’s equal in terms of performance.

Relievers Of The (Partial) Year

1. Owen Proksch


2. Robby Ahlstrom



3. Wilian Bormie


Statistically, Hickory’s Luimy Munoz and Michael Trausch are nearby.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 9, Las Vegas (ATH) 1
Round Rock: 8 hits, 7 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
Record: 10-9, 4 GB, 41-53 overall

SP Marco Gonzales: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 75 P / 47 S, 8.16 ERA
RP Ryan Lobus: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 4.82 ERA
RP Alexis Diaz: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.51 ERA
3B John Taylor: 1-3, 3B, 2 BB, SB (6), .237/.365/.474
CF Jarred Kelenic: 2-5, 2B, SB (6), .352/.441/.614

Nolan Kingham touched 97 in a brief outing. His fastball has averaged 94 as a starter. Kingham certainly had the stuff to justify returning to the States from Mexico, but homers, especially on the road, have crushed him. That’s a surprise, as he wasn’t very susceptible to them south of the border where homers are rampant. 

Incidentally, throughout the boxes are starting or long-relief pitchers getting an inning in to keep fresh for next week’s resumptions of full schedules. Kingham, Moises Morales, Jesus Lafalaise, Enrique Segura, Ismael Agreda and Joe Adametz all pitched yesterday. 


AA: Frisco 4, Tulsa (LAD) 6
Frisco: 11 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 10-9, 1 G up, 49-38 overall

SP Aidan Curry: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 5 SO, 77 P / 46 S, 6.26 ERA
DH Sebastian Walcott: 0-3, 2 BB, SB (1)
1B Arturo Disla: 2-3, 2 BB, .294/.382/.519
LF Yeison Morrobel: 2-5

Sebastian Walcott is in AA after two appearances with the rookies. Frisco has 50 games remaining, so with a few days off, Walcott can approach if not reach 200 plate appearances for the season. 

Tulsa has the best overall and by far the most patient offense Curry has faced in AA. He’s fortunate to be a veteran of sorts; many pitchers wouldn’t have lasted beyond their second walk and 28th pitch in the 1st. Given a longer leash, he then retired ten straight. 

Whatever else happens, Yeison Morrobel reaching Frisco on merit is a nice story. He batted .170/.248/.278 last year in Hub City repeating the level, and despite his young age (then 21), I feared for his employment. In high-A for a third time and with Anthony Gutierrez, Paxton Kling and Max Martin around, he appeared to be in a group with Chandler Pollard (who can also play infield) and Quincy Scott (same, at 1B) fighting for occasional starts. Injuries to other and his own much-improved play gave him consistent at-bats, and now we’ll see what he can do in Frisco. 

Per the MLB.com beat reporter for the Athletics: “Ryan Lasko update: He was transferred yesterday to Kessler Institute for Rehabilitation in his home state of New Jersey to continue his rehab. There has been no change in his condition, though this is a step in the right direction and Lasko is in good spirits.” Lasko suffered a spinal injury in a collision with a teammate while playing in Frisco at the end of June. 


Hi-A: Hub City 6, Greensboro (PIT) 10
Hub City: 4 hits, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 15 hits, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 6-16, 8 GB, 40-48 overall

SP Izack Tiger: 2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 41 P / 31 S, 17.00 ERA
RP Enrique Segura: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 7.13 ERA
RP Ismael Agreda: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 5.57 ERA
2B Casey Cook: 1-4, HR (1)
RF Hector Osorio: 1-4, HR (8), .273/.375/.504
DH Antonis Macias: 1-4, HR (3), .236/.345/.327
C Cal Stark: 1-4, HR (3), .114/.241/.257

2024 third-rounder Casey Cook made his first full-season appearance and his first in the infield since moving to outfield late in 2025. On a hot night, the teams combined for eight homers, four of which came off Izack Tiger in a span of nine batters. Tiger’s velocity is fine (mid-90s), if not at the peak seen in short bursts, and his control is solid, but the Keys loved what he was putting in the zone, especially his mid-80s breaker. 


Lo-A: Hickory 7, Wilson (MIL) 5
Hickory: 10 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 16-6, 3 G up, 50-36 overall

SP Mason McConnaughey: 3 IP, 3 H (2 HR), 4 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 49 P / 28 S, 12.00 ERA
RP Luimy Munoz: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1.57 ERA
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-5, SB (41), .288/.396/.413
LF Paulino Santana: 1-3, HR (10), BB, .246/.381/.407
RF Jamaurion McQueen: 2-4

2025 4th-round righty Mason McConnaughey made his full-season debut and fourth pro appearance. He’d undergone elbow surgery after three starts as a junior for Nebraska in ’25. As is common if not custom, the Rangers weren’t dissuaded and picked him 115th overall. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: not Corniell
AA: Pence
Hi-A: Scarborough
Lo-A: Nivar

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Off an IL stint, Justin Foscue homered for the sixth time in five games. I would later joke (or half-joke) that Texas should have traded him right then. That would have been ridiculous, though. Texas was dreadful in 2021, working on a rebuild, using Nick Solak at 2nd and Brock Holt and Charlie Culberson at third (a potential spot for Foscue at the time). 

Down East played as the Kinston Collard Greens. I wish I’d bought a shirt. 

Movement

IF Sebastian Walcott is active in Frisco and will DH tonight. That was quick.

Up to Round Rock: C Julian Brock

Up to Frisco: OF Yeison Morrobel

Up to Hub City: 1B/OF Marcos Torres, IF/OF Casey Cook (off 60-day IL)

Up to Hickory: RHP Mason McConnaughey, OF Jay McQueen

Signed And Assigned

Round 5. TWP Michael Anderson ($172,500, slot $486,800)
Round 6. RHP Aidan Brainard $2,500, slot $373,800)
Round 7. RHP Caden Aoki ($2,500, slot $294,800)
Round 9. OF Kaden Carpenter ($2,500, 209,000)
Round 10. IF Evan Morrison ($2,500, slot 196,200)

All were assigned to Arizona. These are all but one of a group of college seniors I mentioned would be signed for far less than slot, with the savings used to lure Brody Bumila and perhaps others. They collectively signed for $1.378 million under slot. The Rangers have employed this tactic before, but never so aggressively. In 2021, Texas signed picks 6-10 for a combined $285,000. Two of those picks — Chase Lee and Liam Hicks — would make the Majors, so don’t automatically dismiss the 2026 group. 

20th-round RHP Cody Airington announced he would be returning to Austin Peay. 

A Quick Look At Team Data

At the three levels below AAA, offense is higher than it has ever been in my 20 years on the beast, higher than any other season under the modern classification system (1990), higher than any season since at least 1970, as far back as I checked. Wild times. 

I’ll also have a quick rundown of best pitchers and hitters in the next couple of days.

Texas

Shout it to the back row: The Rangers have an average offense!

The problem is they’re not scoring as many runs as they should given their OPS. That must mean bad hitting with runners in scoring position, right?* Yes and no. The Rangers are actually dead-average in that respect. The problem is they’re above average with just one runner in scoring position, yet not seeing any advantage in terms of actual runs. And, they’re dismal with runners at 2nd and 3rd, hitting .226/.280/.293 and scoring 18 runs fewer than average, on pace to cost themselves three wins (in the abstract) this season for performance in a situation that occurs only once or twice per game. 

Round Rock

For a decent stretch, the Express pitching hovered near the league average, but yielding 8.8 runs per game at Reno and 11.5 at Vegas in the last month has dropped the staff well into the league’s bottom half in run prevention. Round Rock has allowed more homers than any other team, almost unfathomable given the presence of Albuquerque, El Paso, Reno and Salt Lake. As it stands, they’re the fourth-worst** team I’ve covered, ahead of just the Frisco RoughRiders of 2018, 2015 and 2016. They’ve had massive turnover. 

Frisco

Frisco has the league’s best offense and so far is the best full-season offense I’ve covered in 20 years. I’d certainly hoped for a strong performance given the advanced ages of most of the participants. Recently, they’ve added several younger prospects from Hub City without losing a beat. The pitching’s lone deficiency is proneness to homers. 

Hub City

Hub City to date has the worst pitching of any full-season team I’ve covered and among the worst of any of the over 900 teams participating in a Texas-affiliated league over the past 20 years. They give up a ton of homers and a ton of walks. Sorry. Hector Osorio has been a fine addition, but losing Moore, Perich and Disla has hurt.

Hickory

The Crawdads are on pace to be the fifth-best team I’ve covered. The pitching is good, but “only” good. Much of Hickory’s run prevention belongs to a stellar defense. 

* The universal condition is that every fan is dissatisfied with their team’s hitting with runners in scoring position. Fire the hitting coach. 

** In this context, I mean the season for any full-season Rangers-affiliated squad during 2007-2026, of which there have been 80. 

Draft Review, Rounds 1-10

Texas had an interesting, high-risk heterodox draft. Clubs gravitated to contact-orientated college hitters, but the Rangers picked three high schoolers in three rounds, two of them pitchers, for the first time since 2018. Keeping to form, one of those young hurlers is injured.

1/16: LHP Gio Rojas
Age 19.0, 6’4”, 190, Parkland FL 
Ranked #8 by MLB.com, #14 Fangraphs, #17 Baseball America, , #19 Baseball Prospectus, #21 ESPN, #25 Athletic

Rojas was the highest-ranked high school pitcher on the board and can make a case for best pitcher, period, albeit with a less-assured floor than a college pick. Rojas should add some weight, but I wouldn’t call him skinny, just lean. His delivery is snappy but smooth from the low-3/4 slot. His fastball sits 92-96 and has reached 98, and the sweeper is a bat-misser. The change is under development. 

2/54: SS Connor Comeau 
Age , 6.4”, 180, Austin, TX
Ranked #33 Fangraphs, #42 BP, #55 BA & MLB.com, #61 Athletic, #66 ESPN

Raised in Austin but committed to… Texas A&M? Can’t have everything I guess. Per local reports, Texas would have been happy with Comeau at #16 and was overjoyed to find him available later. Comeau looks skinny relative to Rojas but in fairness is over a year younger. Nobody I’ve read believes he’ll stick at short, but third is a possibility. He has good contact now and is expected to develop worthy power as he ages. 

3/89: LHP Brody Bumila
Age 18.4, 6’9”, 255, Attleboro, MA
Ranked #23 MLB.com, #54 Athletic, #64 BA, #65 ESPN, #76 BP

The giant Bumila underwent brace surgery last year, and he wouldn’t have fallen this deep if not for late news of another elbow injury. Bumila has reached 100 with a fastball delivered from a low slot with impressive vertical break. He offers an impressive changeup for his age, while the breaker or breakers lag at present. 

Texas traveled this route previously with Mike Matuella, a no-doubt first-rounder if healthy who slipped to the third because of elbow trouble and a chronic back condition. The Rangers signed him for $2 million, equivalent to slot for the late first round. Matuella didn’t pan out, and his production in real games wasn’t impressive, but for a while he was still one of Texas’s most promising prospects. I liked that pick at the time and like this one. Bumila has indicated publicly that he intends to sign. 

4/117: RHP Hudson Calhoun
Age 21.9, 6’4”, 210, Mississippi
Ranked #198 BA, #235 MLB.com 

Purely a reliever in college, Calhoun stretched out to as many as four innings and 81 pitches. He has a full repertoire including a mid-90s heater, cutter, slider and change, so initial development in a starting role is possible. He struck out 67 in 46.2 innings but walked or hit 30. 

5/149. RHP/ Michael Anderson Jr.
6’3”, 204, Penn State
Ranked #263 BA

Round 5-10 are all senior signs. Texas’s aggregate bonus allotment for these picks is $1,797,000. That money will be spent, but these folks won’t see that much of it. Pointedly listed as a two-way player by the Rangers, Anderson batted .358/.470/.742 with 20 homers exclusively as a DH. He’s a hacker but cut back substantially on the strikeouts this season. Most of his prior defensive work was at first. He made two appearances on the mound as a senior, throwing 1.2 scoreless with a walk and strikeout. He’s touched 97 with his fastball. 

6/178. RHP Aidan Brainard
Age 22.2, 6’3”, 210, Nevada

Brainard spent one year at the Division I level. He’s undergone elbow surgery in the past and is a big Rockies fan, so he knows how to deal with adversity. Mostly as a starter, he posted a 6.53 ERA (league avg. is 6.85), with 68 strikeouts and 49 combined walks and hit batters in 62 innings. I’ve seen a report of a fastball up to 97. 

7/207. RHP Caden Aoki
Age 23.9, 6’0”, 185, Georgia

The fifth-year senior joined the Bulldogs in a swing role after three years at USC. He fanned 110 versus 27 walks with a 4.08 ERA in 86 innings. Final start was 8 IP 4 R, 0 BB, 6 SO against Oklahoma in the College World Series. He deals a 90ish fastball plus a curve, slider and change. 

8/237. SS Kolby Branch
Age 23.4, 5’11”, 202, Georgia
Ranked #43 college senior (not overall) by BA

Born in Allen, TX, began college with Baylor, finished by grabbing grounders induced by Aoki. Batted .291/.394/.628 with 20 homers. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts. 

9/267. OF Kaden Carpenter
Age 23.1, 6’4”, 225, Utah Valley 
Ranked #46 college senior by BA

Dipped to Utah Valley State after three years at Utah and batted .338/.467/.706. His OPS led the WAC, and he was near the top in homers and walks (and strikeouts). Mostly a right fielder with a little center. 

10/297. SS Evan Morrison
Age 23.2, 5’11”, 200, Grand Valley State

Morrison batted .410/.476/.590 with six homers and 27 steals for the Division II school located west of Grand Rapids, MI. (For context, his team batted .339/.441/.519 and scored 9.7 runs per game.) Morrison also pitched in juco and summer leagues through 2024. 

Rangers Farm Report: Games of Sunday 12 July
Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 5, at Reno (ARI) 2
Round Rock: 10 hits, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 9-9, 4 GB, 40-53 overall

SP Jordan Montgomery: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 52 P / 35 S, 3.00 ERA
RP Winston Santos: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO, 9.00 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.14 ERA
1B Josh Smith: 2-5, .236/.305/.375

Montgomery is slowly building to a starter’s workload. Santos missed ten bats, including three whiffs on four swings at changeups. I was momentarily scared at seeing Bormie’s fastball velocity yesterday down to 94.2, but that average appears to include some pitches at 89-90 MPH that I’d call changeups. 

IF Jonah Bride has been released. 

Full-season ball has the same break as the majors. Round Rock will host Las Vegas over the upcoming weekend and visit Albuquerque afterwards. 


AA: Frisco 11, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 3
Frisco: 12 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 10-8, 1 GB, 49-37 overall

SP Cody Bradford: 1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 21 P / 7 S, 9.00 ERA
3B Rafe Perich: 3-5, 2B, 2 HR (10), .324/.420/.662
CF Dylan Dreiling: 3-5, HR (12), .280/.359/.464
1B Arturo Disla: 3-4, 2B, HR (9), .288/.373/.516
RF Keith Jones II: 1-3, HR (10), BB, .229/.339/.418

Cody Bradford missed on 14 of 21 pitches but didn’t look as bad as that. A couple of walks and numerous steals (Bradford was indifferent) led to the run. 

System leaders in homers:
21 — Rafe Perich
20 — Hector Osorio
15 — Arturo Disla
14 — Malcolm Moore
14 — Yeison Morrobel


Hi-A: Hub City 0, Bowling Green (TAM) 4
Hub City: 3 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts
Record: 6-15, 7 GB, 40-47 overall

SP D.J. McCarty: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 6 SO, 81 P / 55 S, 5.92 ERA
RP Owen Proksch: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.13 ERA
RP Jesus Gamez: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 3.90 ERA
SS Luke Hanson: 1-3, 2B, BB, SB (10), .246/.317/.426

Hub City lost five of six to a typically strong Bowling Green (60-26). The oft-beleaguered pitching held the Hot Rods to a run per game below their season average, but the offense was limited to 2.8 runs per game. 


Lo-A: Hickory 7, at Augusta (ATL) 0
Hickory: 9 hits, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts
Opponent: 3 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 15-5, 2 G up, 49-35 overall

SP Evan Siary: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 SO, 71 P / 53 S, 3.39 ERA
RP Alejandro Chiquillo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 3.00 ERA
3B Yolfran Castillo: 1-4, HR (4), BB, SB (40), .286/.396/.413
SS Angel Arredondo: 2-4, 2B, .253/.389/.405
RF Deward Tovar: 1-4, HR (13), .226/.297/.429
1B Marcos Torres: 2-4, 2B, HR (10), .236/.324/.444

Yolfran Castillo has 40 steals and 25 combined doubles and triples. Both are seventh-most in all of minor league baseball. 

Paulino Santana’s 68 combined walks and HBPs are also seventh-most in the minors.

Siary fanned ten for the first time. 

Texas released OF Braylin Morel. While not a costly international signing in 2023, he quickly made an impression and ranked as high as 13th in the system per Baseball America entering 2024. Purely in terms of production, though, he declined each year, falling to .182/.198/.312 with two walks and 27 strikeouts in 21 games for Hickory in 2026. Despite that production as a bat-first prospect, the release is a surprise, as he’s only 20 and had spent only 45 games in full-season ball. 

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Here’s my summaries of picks 2-10 from 2021 with a “where are they now” appendage:

2. OF Aaron Zavala, University of Oregon, 21 years / 0 months
(#76 prospect per MLB.com, #124 per BA, #38 per FanGraphs)
Zavala stands out in a thin draft for college bats. Lefty-swinging, contact-oriented, hit .392/.525/.628 with many more walks than strikeouts. Played right in 2021, has dabbled at third and second, but the arm might confine him to left.

2026: Still with the Rangers in AAA. 

3. SS Cameron Cauley, Mont Belvieu, TX, 18 / 5 (#92 MLB.com, #85 BA)
You are legally obliged to mention his swagger in any writeup. Like Zavala, more about contact than power, and the arm creates some positional uncertainty. Speedy. Texas Tech commit.

2026: Arm is fine. Currently enjoying the All-Star Break with the parent club.

4. C Ian Moller, Dubuque, IA, 18 / 8
(#124 MLB.com, #272 BA, #76 FanGraphs)
Listed at 6′ even, 195 pounds, looks bigger. Good power prospect, has across-the-board tools except for speed, performance very inconsistent. LSU commit.

2026: In AA, power better in 2026 but not as envisioned. 

5. LHP Mitch Bratt, Newmarket, Ontario, 18 / 0
(#214 MLB.com, #302 BA)
Absconded to Georgia this season to receive more scouting attention outside of Canada’s stricter covid rules. Fastball has reached the low 90s, curve, change. Texas’s youngest pick (including Rounds 11-20). 

2026: Made his MLB debut last month.

6. RHP Chase Lee, University of Alabama, 22 / 11
(unranked)
The Crimson Tide closer saved seven games and fanned 51 in 40.2 innings. 4th-year junior, side-armer, played for a club team as a freshman, has a degree in aerospace engineering. 

2026: Brief appearance in Toronto, mostly in AAA, pitched 37 MLB innings year before.

7. RHP Bradford Webb, Virginia Commonwealth Univ., 23 / 2
(unranked)
Webb didn’t join VCU until this year but started the conference-winning game over Rhode Island and the opening game in the NCAA Regionals and the championship. Webb received his undergrad degree in economics at a different school and came to VCU as a grad student.

2026: A cheap sign to spread bonuses elsewhere, released in mid-2023.

8. LHP Larson Kindreich, Biola University, 22 / 0
(#246 MLB.com, #159 BA)
High-strikeout, high-walk starter in three years at Biola University in La Mirada, CA. Don’t think I’d heard of the school or city until yesterday. Turns out Todd and Tom Worrell are alums. He’s reached 94 MPH but the velocity, his other pitches and results have varied widely. 

2026: Still a Ranger, on IL all season after decent showing in AA last year.

9. C Liam Hicks, Arkansas State University, 22 / 1
(unranked)
#12 Arkansas draft prospect per Baseball America. Batted .344/.464/.548 with seven homers in 41 games, only 18 strikeouts.
2026: Signed for $30k, traded in mid-’24, left off Detroit’s 40 (and Texas wouldn’t have protected him either), nabbed by Miami in R5, huge glow-up as a Marlin.10. LHP C.J. Widger , Rowan Junior College (NJ), 22 / 1
(unranked)
Son of Chris, MLB catcher. Fanned 68 in 57 innings.

2026: Another cheap sign, released in March 2024, subsequent stints with Seattle, San Franscico, San Diego, released last week. 

Teodo Time

The Rangers placed reliever Chris Martin on the IL and have recalled righty Emiliano Teodo. 

Jose Corniell threw 50 pitches two days ago, but Winston Santos is on four days rest. Luis Curvelo is on just one day of rest after 28 pitches, but Teodo threw 22 pitches the same day. Choices are limited and undesirable, but Teodo does read as a choice, not the only option.

Teodo’s slider is borderline unhittable. Averaging 90 MPH, it misses bats 40% of the time including 27% in the zone and 56% outside. On plate appearances that conclude with a slider, opponents have a 40% strikeout rate, and the contact isn’t much, just a ,235 average and .441 slug even when ignoring all the strikeouts. 

Teodo also offers a sinker that has reached 103.3 MPH. That was on what I think was a hot gun in El Paso, but suffice to say he can sit 100, not just touch it. His miss rates are also above average, 14% on all swings vs. 11% of sinkers league-wide. When it’s on, he looks like an MLB closer. 

Here’s the problem. For most of the season, Teodo has been unable to locate that sinker with any consistency. It’s catching the zone only 38% of the time (league average is 53%), and the opposing swing rate is is only 34% (league is 44%). Much of the time, opposing hitters don’t have to worry about it, creating ugly downstream effects on his slider and change. I saw this with Marc Church, I’ve seen it with Teodo, I’m seeing it with Wilian Bormie. The fastball doesn’t have to be the best pitch, it doesn’t even have to be better than average, but it has to be functional or everything breaks down. Teodo’s lovely slider is sitting out there all by itself, and that’s not enough in AAA, much less the Majors. 

Below is a chart comparing Teodo to a set of MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 250 pitches this year and tend to be fastball/slider types. The fastball can be four or two-seam, and the slider can be a sweeper, but I’m looking at guys who throw substantial percentages of both general types and at least 80% in sum. 

Don’t worry about correlation between fastball and slider zone rate. The point is that Teodo is on an island in terms of fastball zone rate or perhaps sharing the island with San Francisco’s Matt Gate, who has 17 walks and a 5.60 ERA in 27 innings. Most of these pitchers have a zone rate of 48% or better. 

As for Teodo’s change, it’s fine in isolation, but he’s thrown only 47 of them all season, and I can’t blame him. A changeup needs a fastball for a friend, and his fastball is being a jerk. Teodo also had a stretch in which he threw some four-seamers but none since early May. 

Teodo had a month-long stretch in which he put everything together, and a call-up seemed imminent, especially after back-to-back appearances on May 29-30. That period is over. Teodo has walked or hit a batter in eight consecutive outings, and his strike rate in this span is 53%. Nobody with that strike rate in MLB succeeds for long. For the season, he’s issued a walk or hit batter in 26 of 35 appearances, and his overall BB+HBP rate is 23%. 

To answer the “is he ready” question, no, I think not, but can we count on Santos or Curvelo being better at this moment? Teodo might fan the side on 15 pitches. He also might hit two batters in five pitches. Who knows. With four off-days upcoming, Teodo could see little to no action before being optioned. 

Draft Review?

Sorry, I’m going to be lame and delay my review of Texas’s draft picks until tomorrow. I lost my initial writeup of yesterday’s picks to a computer meltdown, and I wanted to get a report on Teodo out in timely fashion. Locations for everyone I previewed yesterday:

8. PIT – OF Derek Curiel
12. LAA — RHP/OF Jared Grindlinger
13. STL – OF Trevor Condon
16. TEX – LHP Gio Rojas
18. CIN – SS Justin Lebron
19. CLE – RHP Liam Peterson
30. KAN – RHP Taylor Rabe
35. NYY –  LHP Hunter Dietz
38. COL – RHP Logan Reddeman

I don’t think “Rockies in Round 2” is what Logan Reddeman had in mind. 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, at Reno (ARI) 8
Round Rock: 6 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 6 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 8-9, 4 GB, 39-53 overall

SP Spencer Adams: 4 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 74 P / 39 S, 9.82 ERA
2B John Taylor: 2-4, 3B, .354/.446/.633

Taylor tripled to the right-center gap at 109.9 MPH, the second-hardest ball in play by an Express hitter in 2026. First is the departed Blaine Crim, who singled at 111.7. The league has 147 instances of balls hit 110 or harder, led by Zac Veen with ten. 

AA: Frisco 8, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 11
Frisco: 13 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 9 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 9-8, 2 GB, 48-37 overall

SP Dylan MacLean: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 59 P / 35 S, 4.69 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-5, 2B, .274/.355/.441
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 3B, HR (8), BB, .278/.365/.489
C Malcolm Moore: 2-4, 2B, HBP, .236/.309/.472
RF Keith Jones II: 1-3, HR (), .227/.337/.406

Whew. Frisco trailed 3-0 early and 6-3 after seven but took an 8-6 lead to the 9th. Joey Danielson didn’t retire anyone, allowing two singles, a double, an intentional walk and walk-off grand slam. Usually I’d have some caveat about the earlier hits against Danielson being annoyingly cheap, but no, the Hooks really had him figured out last night. Danielson’s control in Frisco (12.2% BB+HBP) has been okay relative to the league and better than his time in Hub City (17.2%), but at times he’s been hittable. 

Hi-A: Hub City 3, Bowling Green (TAM) 2 (10)
Hub City: 7 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-14, 7 GB, 40-46 overall

SP AJ Russell: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 54 P / 30 S, 2.38 ERA
LF Yeison Morrobel: 2-4, HR (14), .297/.370/.497

Hub City finally took one from the Hot Rods. To begin the 10th, manager Carlos Maldonado used speedy Chandler Pollard to pinch-run for catcher Arturo De Freitas (a recent free-agent signing). The move paid off immediately, as Pollard advanced to third on a wild pitch and was able to beat the throw home on a medium flyout to center.

AJ Russell has walked eight of 38 batters (21%) in three starts since moving to Hub City. 

Lo-A: Hickory 13, at Augusta (ATL) 4
Hickory: 9 hits, 14 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-5, 1 G up, 48-35 overall

SP Aidan Deakins: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 86 P / 51 S, 2.47 ERA
LF Paulino Santana: 1-3, 2B, 3 BB, .248/.381/.402
C Sebastian Baquera: 1-3, HR (2), 2 BB, HBP, .258/.356/.387

Hickory regained the division lead and will hit the break with no worse than a share of first. The Dads had only two extra-base hits. Augusta’s six pitchers combined for 105 strikes and 112 balls and issued a balk, two wild pitches and two hit batters in addition to the 14 walks. The GreenJackets also committed five errors. Just a fun day all around. 

Elsewhere
The Nationals have called up 1B Abimelec Ortiz form AAA Rochester, where he was batting .235/.332/.481 with 16 homers in 71 games. Aside from the power, it’s honestly a pretty light line. Ortiz isn’t striking out much,and his exit velocities are swell, but he’s hitting just .303 on contact and .234 on balls requiring fielders. His average on grounders is just .178 compared to the league rate of .255. Maybe he’s a little unlucky, but he’s also not the fastest runner. 

Boston designated reliever Danny Coulombe for assignment. Coulombe had a not-terrible 4.50 ERA but 15 walks versus just 10 strikeouts in 22 innings. This isn’t 1950, so that ratio won’t work. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: TBD
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: Siary

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas chose RHP Jack Leiter with the second pick in the draft. 

Teodo Time

The Rangers placed reliever Chris Martin on the IL and have recalled righty Emiliano Teodo. 

Jose Corniell threw 50 pitches two days ago, but Winston Santos is on four days rest. Luis Curvelo is on just one day of rest after 28 pitches, but Teodo threw 22 pitches the same day. Choices are limited and undesirable, but Teodo does read as a choice, not the only option.

Teodo’s slider is borderline unhittable. Averaging 90 MPH, it misses bats 40% of the time including 27% in the zone and 56% outside. On plate appearances that conclude with a slider, opponents have a 40% strikeout rate, and the contact isn’t much, just a ,235 average and .441 slug even when ignoring all the strikeouts. 

Teodo also offers a sinker that has reached 103.3 MPH. That was on what I think was a hot gun in El Paso, but suffice to say he can sit 100, not just touch it. His miss rates are also above average, 14% on all swings vs. 11% of sinkers league-wide. When it’s on, he looks like an MLB closer. 

Here’s the problem. For most of the season, Teodo has been unable to locate that sinker with any consistency. It’s catching the zone only 38% of the time (league average is 53%), and the opposing swing rate is is only 34% (league is 44%). Much of the time, opposing hitters don’t have to worry about it, creating ugly downstream effects on his slider and change. I saw this with Marc Church, I’ve seen it with Teodo, I’m seeing it with Wilian Bormie. The fastball doesn’t have to be the best pitch, it doesn’t even have to be better than average, but it has to be functional or everything breaks down. Teodo’s lovely slider is sitting out there all by itself, and that’s not enough in AAA, much less the Majors. 

Below is a chart comparing Teodo to a set of MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 250 pitches this year and tend to be fastball/slider types. The fastball can be four or two-seam, and the slider can be a sweeper, but I’m looking at guys who throw substantial percentages of both general types and at least 80% in sum. 



Don’t worry about correlation between fastball and slider zone rate. The point is that Teodo is on an island in terms of fastball zone rate or perhaps sharing the island with San Francisco’s Matt Gate, who has 17 walks and a 5.60 ERA in 27 innings. Most of these pitchers have a zone rate of 48% or better. 

As for Teodo’s change, it’s fine in isolation, but he’s thrown only 47 of them all season, and I can’t blame him. A changeup needs a fastball for a friend, and his fastball is being a jerk. Teodo also had a stretch in which he threw some four-seamers but none since early May. 

Teodo had a month-long stretch in which he put everything together, and a call-up seemed imminent, especially after back-to-back appearances on May 29-30. That period is over. Teodo has walked or hit a batter in eight consecutive outings, and his strike rate in this span is 53%. Nobody with that strike rate in MLB succeeds for long. For the season, he’s issued a walk or hit batter in 26 of 35 appearances, and his overall BB+HBP rate is 23%. 

To answer the “is he ready” question, no, I think not, but can we count on Santos or Curvelo being better at this moment? Teodo might fan the side on 15 pitches. He also might hit two batters in five pitches. Who knows. With four off-days upcoming, Teodo could see little to no action before being optioned. 

Draft Review?

Sorry, I’m going to be lame and delay my review of Texas’s draft picks until tomorrow. I lost my initial writeup of yesterday’s picks to a computer meltdown, and I wanted to get a report on Teodo out in timely fashion. Locations for everyone I previewed yesterday:
8. PIT – OF Derek Curiel
12. LAA — RHP/OF Jared Grindlinger
13. STL – OF Trevor Condon
16. TEX – LHP Gio Rojas
18. CIN – SS Justin Lebron
19. CLE – RHP Liam Peterson
30. KAN – RHP Taylor Rabe
35. NYY –  LHP Hunter Dietz
38. COL – RHP Logan Reddeman

I don’t think “Rockies in Round 2” is what Logan Reddeman had in mind. 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 2, at Reno (ARI) 8
Round Rock: 6 hits, 4 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 6 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 8-9, 4 GB, 39-53 overall

SP Spencer Adams: 4 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 4 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 74 P / 39 S, 9.82 ERA
2B John Taylor: 2-4, 3B, .354/.446/.633

Taylor tripled to the right-center gap at 109.9 MPH, the second-hardest ball in play by an Express hitter in 2026. First is the departed Blaine Crim, who singled at 111.7. The league has 147 instances of balls hit 110 or harder, led by Zac Veen with ten. 


AA: Frisco 8, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 11
Frisco: 13 hits, 3 walks, 14 strikeouts
Opponent: 11 hits, 9 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 9-8, 2 GB, 48-37 overall

SP Dylan MacLean: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 SO, 59 P / 35 S, 4.69 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-5, 2B, .274/.355/.441
1B Arturo Disla: 2-4, 3B, HR (8), BB, .278/.365/.489
C Malcolm Moore: 2-4, 2B, HBP, .236/.309/.472
RF Keith Jones II: 1-3, HR (), .227/.337/.406

Whew. Frisco trailed 3-0 early and 6-3 after seven but took an 8-6 lead to the 9th. Joey Danielson didn’t retire anyone, allowing two singles, a double, an intentional walk and walk-off grand slam. Usually I’d have some caveat about the earlier hits against Danielson being annoyingly cheap, but no, the Hooks really had him figured out last night. Danielson’s control in Frisco (12.2% BB+HBP) has been okay relative to the league and better than his time in Hub City (17.2%), but at times he’s been hittable. 


Hi-A: Hub City 3, Bowling Green (TAM) 2 (10)
Hub City: 7 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 6-14, 7 GB, 40-46 overall

SP AJ Russell: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 54 P / 30 S, 2.38 ERA
LF Yeison Morrobel: 2-4, HR (14), .297/.370/.497

Hub City finally took one from the Hot Rods. To begin the 10th, manager Carlos Maldonado used speedy Chandler Pollard to pinch-run for catcher Arturo De Freitas (a recent free-agent signing). The move paid off immediately, as Pollard advanced to third on a wild pitch and was able to beat the throw home on a medium flyout to center.

AJ Russell has walked eight of 38 batters (21%) in three starts since moving to Hub City. 


Lo-A: Hickory 13, at Augusta (ATL) 4
Hickory: 9 hits, 14 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 4 walks, 9 strikeouts
Record: 14-5, 1 G up, 48-35 overall

SP Aidan Deakins: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 86 P / 51 S, 2.47 ERA
LF Paulino Santana: 1-3, 2B, 3 BB, .248/.381/.402
C Sebastian Baquera: 1-3, HR (2), 2 BB, HBP, .258/.356/.387

Hickory regained the division lead and will hit the break with no worse than a share of first. The Dads had only two extra-base hits. Augusta’s six pitchers combined for 105 strikes and 112 balls and issued a balk, two wild pitches and two hit batters in addition to the 14 walks. The GreenJackets also committed five errors. Just a fun day all around. 

Elsewhere
The Nationals have called up 1B Abimelec Ortiz form AAA Rochester, where he was batting .235/.332/.481 with 16 homers in 71 games. Aside from the power, it’s honestly a pretty light line. Ortiz isn’t striking out much,and his exit velocities are swell, but he’s hitting just .303 on contact and .234 on balls requiring fielders. His average on grounders is just .178 compared to the league rate of .255. Maybe he’s a little unlucky, but he’s also not the fastest runner. 

Boston designated reliever Danny Coulombe for assignment. Coulombe had a not-terrible 4.50 ERA but 15 walks versus just 10 strikeouts in 22 innings. This isn’t 1950, so that ratio won’t work. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: TBD
AA: TBD
Hi-A: McCarty
Lo-A: Siary

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Texas chose RHP Jack Leiter with the second pick in the draft. 

Draft Preview
The draft begins today at noon CDT with picks 1-10 on NBC/Peacock, 11-40 on MLB Network and 41-135 on MLB.com. Tomorrow resumes with rounds 5-20 at 10:30am. 

Every year, I try to provide a summary of possible choices, but to be honest, there’s only so many hours in the day, so I tend not to study players closely until they’ve been chosen by Texas. Also, the Rangers are picking 16th within what appears to be a large and tricky set of potential mid-round choices. 

Last year, I previewed eight players, none of whom became Texas’s eventual selection. Still, I like to provide some information, both to educate myself and create a list for review down the road. Everyone discussed below was named in some publication’s mock draft during the past two months. 

RHP Liam Peterson (Age 21.1, Florida)
Baseball America mocks 6, 5 and 4
ESPN final mock

Peterson has an enviable frame with a high release. His fastball sits mid-90s and has touched triple digits. He does come across as someone who needs more developmental help than the typical highly regarded three-year SEC guy. He’s still trying to figure out his mechanics, his actual performance was a little underwhelming, and his secondaries beyond the slider are playing catch-up. As to whether the Rangers are the organization to provide that help, a strong point in their favor is Alejandro Rosario, who flourished upon joining the Rangers until his elbow betrayed him. 

RHP/OF Jared Grindlinger (Age 17.2, Huntington Beach, CA)
MLB Pipeline mock 7/2
Athletic mocks 3 and 2

Even though he’s 6’3” and 185, Grindlinger looks boyish to me after watching videos of mature college pitchers. So he is, to an extent, and that’s much of the appeal. He’s already impressive and has plenty of room to grow into something even better. I’ve read differing opinions on whether pitching or batting is in future. He has a truly legit changeup, uncommon for his age, along with a mid-90s fastball and slider. At the plate, his contact skill is elite, but he is a 1B/COF type, so the bat must play. 

LHP Gio Rojas (Age 19.0, Parkland, FL)
Baseball America final mock (7)

After putting Peterson in Texas for multiple mocks, Baseball America sent him to the Angels at #12 in their final version. Rojas is old for a high schooler but that doesn’t bother me much. He owns a clean delivery, a solid mid-90s heater and bat-missing sweeper. The change is a work in progress. 

LHP Hunter Dietz (Age 21.4, Arkansas)
FanGraphs

Dietz leaves college with only 87.1 innings on his ledger, 85.2 of which occurred this season. Elongated recovery from a stress fracture in his elbow cost him nearly all of his first two seasons. He sits mid-90s with a mean cutter, plus a slider, curve and change that carry less of the load. 

RHP Taylor Rabe (Age 21.8, Mississippi)
Athletic final mock

Like Dietz, Rabe lacks much of a college track record prior to 2026. He offers a slightly harder fastball than Dietz and a similarly angry cutter, while the slider and change could use some work. He walked only 15 in 76 innings and fanned 105. 

SS Justin Lebron (Age 21.6, Alabama)
Baseball America staff mock 3
MLB Pipeline mock 6/25 and 6/11
Athletic mock 1
CBS mock 6/26

A tough choice. Athletic as they come, a genuine shortstop and the power to play a corner. As a junior, he had a weirdly poor showing in conference play, just .229/.328/.413 with eight walks and 27 strikeouts in 28 games (and I found two sources, because I initially thought that line was a typo). The SEC is an elite conference, of course, but if college breakers are eating him up, what have we got?

RHP Logan Reddemann (Age 21.2, UCLA)
ESPN mock 3 and 2

Also a tough choice. Potentially a top-ten pick early on, he was shut down with arm fatigue after ten starts and showed lesser velocity in recent workouts. When healthy and in form, he offers a mid-90s fastball and full collection of respectable secondaries. His control is elite. 

OF Derek Curiel (Age 21.1, LSU)
Baseball America staff mock 2
CBS mock 6/12

Leaning into the negatives will have you thinking he’s a left fielder with no power. Pass. The positives indicate a leadoff hitter who plays center. Sign me up. Curiel’s contact is top-notch, and some traits and analytics suggest just enough power is forthcoming. Seemingly a safe pick if not one with huge upside. 

OF Trevor Condon (Age 18.5, Woodstock, GA)
Baseball America staff mock 4

Younger brother of Colorado’s Charlie, who spent last week pummeling Texas farmhands in Round Rock. Trevor is six inches shorter and 50 pounds lighter than his brother, and he’s unlikely to homer every fourth day in AAA, but he hits beyond his size and is somewhere between a solid and blazing runner depending on who you read.  

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Reno (ARI) 8
Round Rock: 12 hits, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 6 walks, 4 strikeouts
Record: 8-8, 3 GB, 39-52 overall

SP Jose Corniell: 1.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 1 SO, 50 P / 29 S, 6.37 ERA
RP Luis Curvelo: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 SO, 8.20 ERA

The Express scored five in the 1st, but you can’t beat the house in Reno. Corniell, Emiliano Teodo and Wilian Bormie combined for 100 pitches to complete just four innings. Bormie in particular couldn’t direct his fastball at all, missing (often badly) on ten of 12. Diego Castillo, Jonah Bride, Josh Smith and Austin Wynns had two hits. 

Righty Chris Paddack signed with Korea’s Samsung club. Perhaps soon he’ll face Blaine Crim, who’s currently hitting .353/.455/.353 in five games for NC Dinos.


AA: Frisco 1, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 6
Frisco: 3 hits, 0 walks, 12 strikeouts
Opponent: 7 hits, 5 walks, 1 strikeout
Record: 9-7, 2 GB, 48-36 overall

SP Ben Anderson: 5 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 80 P / 49 S, 4.96 ERA

Frisco was quiet after winning the first three games of the series. 


Hi-A: Hub City 2, Bowling Green (TAM) 4 (7)
Hub City: 3 hits, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 6 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts
Record: 5-14, 7 GB, 39-46 overall

SP Joe Adametz: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 89 P / 56 S, 4.53 ERA
DH Hector Osorio: 1-3, HR (7), .282/.386/.500
3B Gleider Figuereo: 1-3, HR (13), .234/.334/.430

A two-hour opening delay plus additional rain shortened this to seven innings, so Aidan Smith’s score-untying homer off Luke Savage with two out in the 7th proved fatal. Hector Osorio is up to 20 homers on the season. I sure didn’t see that coming. 


Lo-A: Hickory 8, at Augusta (ATL) 7
Hickory: 9 hits, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 6 walks, 10 strikeouts
Record: 13-5, tied for first, 47-35 overall

SP Daniel Keaney: 5 IP, 7 H (1 HR), 5 R, 1 BB, 2 HBP, 3 SO, 78 P / 48 S, 4.26 ERA
RP Jake Jekielek: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 SO, 4.66 ERA
SS Yolfran Castillo: 3-4, 2B, 3B, BB, .288/.399/.408
LF Angel Arredondo: 1-4, 2B, BB, .272/.388/.400

The Crawdads stopped their skid to reclaim a portion of first place. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: Voth (vs Mitch Bratt)
AA: MacLean
Hi-A: russell
Lo-A: Deakins

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Round Rock’s Curtis Terry hit homers 14 and 15. 20-year-old Emiliano Teodo had 13 strikeouts and eight walks in 6.1 innings. Most recently, he mixed a 98-99 fastball and a curve that reached 84. Next year, I’m going to discuss his curve reaching 90 (and yes, it was still a curve). 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 6, at Reno (ARI) 12
Round Rock: 9 hits, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 19 hits, 2 walks, 11 strikeouts
Record: 8-7, 2 GB, 39-51 overall

SP Nolan Kingham: 4 IP, 8 H (3 HR), 7 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, 68 P / 42 S, 8.41 ERA
RP Ryan Lobus: 1.2 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 5 SO, 5.40 ERA
1B John Taylor: 1-5, HR (6), .235/.370/.469

Ryan Lobus had an interesting night. All four balls in play were hits, hard hits at that. All five outs were strikeouts, swinging at that, and he missed 12 bats out of 25 swings, mostly with a four-seamer. Perhaps because the altitude trimming a little action off his pitches, his four-seamer movement was in a zone hardly ever seen, averaging just eight inches of induced vertical break and five inches of run. It’s like he added a tablespoons of sinker and cutter to his four-seamer recipe. My last in-person viewing was nothing to write about, but at times he’s looked the part. Lobus was undrafted out of Macon and and is a longshot at best to make the 40 this fall, but he does have a chance. 


AA: Frisco 5, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 2
Frisco: 10 hits, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts
Record: 9-6, 2 GB, 48-35 overall

SP Dalton Pence: 5.1 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 2 BB, 10 SO, 80 P / 49 S, 2.51 ERA
CF Dylan Dreiling: 2-5, 2 2B, .272/.356/.441
2B Max Wagner: 2-4, HR (11), .254/.355/.537

Dalton Pence reached ten strikeouts for the second time in his pro career. We’ll see what happens, but it’s been a pleasure to see him and the Rangers make a persuasive case as a starter. Baseball America understandably deemed him a “straight reliever prospect” out of college. He had more than one pitch but leaned very heavily on his high-rise fastball because it was so effective (and still is against AA competition). The secondaries are catching up, and he throws strikes. 


Hi-A: Hub City 8, Bowling Green (TAM) 10
Hub City: 8 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts
Opponent: 9 hits, 9 walks, 18 strikeouts
Record: 5-12, 7 GB, 39-44 overall

SP David Davalillo: 2.1 IP, 4 H (1 HR), 5 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 56 P / 34 S, 15.43 ERA
DH Yeison Morrobel: 1-5, HR (13), .297/.372/.491
CF Hector Osorio: 2-4, HR (6), .280/.388/.477
RF Maxton Martin: 2-4, 2 HR (13), .246/.306/.464

After some time in Arizona including one strong appearance for the rookies, David Davalillo appeared in a full-season game for the first time in nearly a month. He’d been pulled from his AAA assignment after suffering an utterly unforeseen loss of control. 

Davalillo began with a quick comebacker and a strikeout of top-100 prospect Nathan Flewelling but then walked two on nine pitches before finishing the frame with another strikeout. In the 2nd and 3rd, the defense wasn’t always acting in his best interest, but his ability to land his pitch in a region, much less a spot, varied wildly. His strike rate was 60%, not great but acceptable under the circumstances, but a good many pitches were simply uncompetitive, just not anything a pro hitter would ever chase. As I’ve mentioned, he’s not suffering from the yips. His situation reminds me of Cole Winn back in the day, especially in low-A, where mechanics and control disappeared and reappeared at random and every pitch was an ordeal. He didn’t look happy out there, and I don’t blame him. This is going to be a process. 


Lo-A: Hickory 5, at Augusta (ATL) 7
Hickory: 5 hits, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 12-5, 1 GB, 46-35 overall

SP Jesus Lafalaise: 5 IP, 2 H (1 HR), 1 R, 1 BB, 9 SO, 84 P / 49 S, 4.45 ERA
DH Pablo Guerrero: 1-3, BB

Augusta flipped the standings in just three days, and Hickory suddenly trails despite a 12-5 record. Jesus Lafalaise fanned a career-high nine, but normally reliable Jormy Nivar (0.2 IP, 4 R) and Michael Trausch (1 IP, 2 R) weren’t in top form. Augusta also has a very strong offense. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: Corniell
AA: Anderson
Hi-A: Adametz
Lo-A: Keaney

Five Years Ago Yesterday
Mock draft predictions:
RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt): MLB.com (Jim Callis), ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein), Perfect Game (staff), Sporting News (Edward Sutelan), Fansided (Mark Powell)
RHP Kumar Rocker (Vanderbilt): The Athletic (Keith Law)
SS Jordan Lawlar (HS, Dallas): Baseball America (Carlos Collazo), CBS Sports (Mike Axisa)

I will have a brief draft preview tomorrow.

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 13, at Reno (ARI) 14
Round Rock: 19 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts
Opponent: 16 hits, 8 walks, 5 strikeouts
Record: 8-6, 2 GB, 39-50 overall

SP Marco Gonzales: 2 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 7 R, 2 BB, 0 SO, 50 P / 29 S, 8.69 ERA
RP Josh Stephan: 4 IP, 5 H (1 HR), 1 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 5.53 ERA
LF Jarred Kelenic: 4-5, 2B, HR (4), BB, SB (4), .366/.451/.662
2B John Taylor: 5-6, SB (5), .237/.377/.452
LF Trevor Hauver: 3-5, .254/.381/.377
RF Gilberto Celestino: 3-5, HR (3), .281/.370/.401

Round Rock trailed 8-4, then led 13-8, then lost. Josh Sborz surrendered an 8th-inning grand slam to Angel Ortiz. In the 9th, Austin Roberts hit the zone on just one of 12 pitches, surrendering a hard double and three walks (one intentional) to bring home the winning run. Roberts had just been deservedly promoted from AA Frisco, where he struck out 58 in 38.1 innings and posted a 3,05 ERA. Control isn’t his specialty, but he hadn’t suffered an outing like this all season. 

Jarred Kelenic had a fine day but also the temerity to draw a walk with two out in the 9th literally as I was researching the most hits in a game without a walk by a Texas AAA team. The answer (2005-present) is and remains 18 back in 2007. 

Marco Gonzales has allowed more runs than innings pitched in six of 16 appearances. I actually expected him to continue beyond the second because it’s Reno, he’s 34 and was only at 50 pitches. 


AA: Frisco 8, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 3
Frisco: 11 hits, 3 walks, 13 strikeouts
Opponent: 5 hits, 4 walks, 15 strikeouts
Record: 8-6, 2 GB,  47-35 overall

SP Blake Townsend: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 HBP, 8 SO, 94 P / 64 S, 5.26 ERA
RP Bryan Magdaleno: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 3.03 ERA
RP Eric Loomis: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 2 SO, 3.33 ERA
3B Rafe Perich: 3-4, HR (8), .331/.434/.653
C Malcolm Moore: 1-4, HR (4), BB, .231/.301/.477
2B Max Wagner: 2-4, HR (10), .246/.351/.515

In the 2nd, Malcolm Moore golfed an 0-2 breaker deep to right-center. As part of a seven-run 8th, Rafe Perich sneaked a fly just inside the pole and over the short fence in right, and Max Wagner added a three-run shot. 

Moore has two homers in July but is otherwise enduring his first fallow period of 2026 including an extreme rise in strikeouts, which had never been an issue for him as a pro even when he wasn’t hitting well. He’s fanned in 13 of 25 July plate appearances. 


Hi-A: Hub City 2, Bowling Green (TAM) 8
Hub City: 9 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 10 hits, 5 walks, 14 strikeouts
Record: 5-11, 6 GB, 39-43 overall

SP Izack Tiger: 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, 41 P / 23 S, 14.14 ERA
RP Owen Proksch: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 SO, 2.31 ERA
SS Luke Hanson: 1-5, HR (12), .251/.322/.433
CF Hector Osorio: 2-3, BB, .272/.384/.447
1B Maxton Martin: 2-4, SB (11), .242/.304/.442

Izack Tiger had a spotless 1st but ran into trouble in the 2nd, walking two and watching several fastballs return fairly sharply into the outfield (plus one annoying broken-bat bloop). 

Owen Proksch stranded three Tiger runners and fanned a career-best seven including his last five opponents in a row. Nine of 16 swings against him came up empty. Proksch isn’t blowing anyone away with his sweeper, fastball and occasional change, but batters have no idea what’s coming and are baited into comically poor swings. 


Lo-A: Hickory 7, at Augusta (ATL) 8
Hickory: 14 hits, 6 walks, 9 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 12-4, tied for first, 46-34 overall

SP Moises Morales: 4.1 IP, 6 H (2 HR), 3 R, 1 BB, 4 SO, 73 P / 43 S, 4.04 ERA
RP JD McReynolds: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 SO, 3.25 ERA
SS Yolfran Castillo: 2-6, SB (37), .283/.393/.397
DH Paulino Santana: 1-6, HR (9), .247/.377/.403
1B Pablo Guerrero: 2-3, 2 BB
3B Angel Arredondo: 3-4, 2B, BB, .248/.394/.404
C Sebastian Baquera: 3-5, HR (1), .288/.356/.385

Hickory again put several more runners aboard than Augusta to no avail. Pablo Guererro is back in action. Son of Vlad has had a rough couple of seasons in low-A but doesn’t turn 20 until the end of the month. 

Elsewhere
Low-A Ontario defeated Inland Empire 22-21. Both teams had 11-run innings, and Ontario led 16-0 after the 3rd and never trailed but had to endure eight opposing batters representing the tying or go-ahead run. The teams combined for 33 hits, 20 walks, four hit batters, six steals (none caught), ten wild pitches and six errors. 

Today’s Starters
AAA: Kingham
AA: Pence
Hi-A: TBD
Lo-A: Lafalaise

Five Years Ago Yesterday
I mentioned high-A Hickory’s Blaine Crim (.275/.333/.483) as a potential promotion candidate with the caveat that “the idea… may exist nowhere outside my head.” He’d reach Frisco in early August. 

Box Scores

AAA: Round Rock 14, at Reno (ARI) 9
Round Rock: 15 hits, 6 walks, 7 strikeouts
Opponent: 14 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 8-5, 2 GB, 39-49 overall

SP Jordan Montgomery: 3 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 SO, 40 P / 26 S, 3.60 ERA
RP Winston Santos: 3 IP, 5 H (2 HR), 6 R, 3 BB, 4 SO, 18.00 ERA
RP Wilian Bormie: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 SO, 2.19 ERA
RP Emiliano Teodo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 SO, 3.60 ERA
LF Jarred Kelenic: 3-4, 2 2B, HBP, .333/.421/.591
SS Keyber Rodriguez: 3-5, HR (6), .220/.314/.440

Jordan Montgomery threw one more inning and one more pitch than his previous start. I’m unsure whether venturing into the 4th was possible, but Round Rock’s eight-run, 26-minute top of the 4th banished that idea. His most common pitch, the sinker, was up a full tick over his previous start, albeit still below his heyday level. Montgomery wins with a broad mix, control and command, so he’s not in a Josh Sborz situation, but at the same time, we don’t want a Dallas Keuchel situation in which velocity is so degraded that even pinpoint command won’t suffice.

Winston Santos made his third career appearance above AA and relied very heavily on a four-seamer ranging from 95.7 to 99, but of his other 26 pitches, 16 were balls and two were taken deep. He and Luis Curvelo (one out, three runs) very nearly squandered a 10-0 lead. Wilian Bormie entered with one out in the 7th and the tying run at third and was able to escape, and the Express added four in the 9th. 


AA: Frisco 3, at Corpus Christi (HOU) 2
Frisco: 7 hits, 3 walks, 15 strikeouts
Opponent: 4 hits, 2 walks, 18 strikeouts
Record: 7-6, 2 GB, 39-29 overall

SP Aidan Curry: 6 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 2 BB, 12 SO, 95 P / 63 S, 6.08 ERA
RP Josh Trentadue: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 SO, 6.90 ERA
3B Rafe Perich: 3-4, 2B, HR (7), .316/.420/.624
1B Arturo Disla: 1-3, 2B, BB, .283/.366/.476
DH Keith Jones II: 1-3, 3B, BB, .229/.344/.404

Aidan Curry’s strikeout record of 11 lasted exactly one start. Curry’s first eight and final three outs of the night were Ks, and all but one were swinging. He missed 18 bats and also got 24 calls. Opponents are hitting .241/.310/.426 against him in AA, which is to say he’s squelched the walks but not the power. Hard contact is an occasional problem, and all three hits against him last night were for extra bases. He does own a 6.08 ERA in AA because that contact sometimes comes in bunches. 

Despite an expanded and genuinely useful repertoire, he still might lack the control to start in the long run, but for now, just being able to credibly discuss an MLB future is amazing. After 2024 and 2025, he was in danger of disappearing from the radar, and I’m sure I’ve had that thought more than once. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have been out of the Curry business since the end of 2024. In the last couple of months, Fangraphs ranked him 25th in the system and Jamey Newberg 24th. I tie myself into too many knots trying to rank guys, but had I done so in Newbergian fashion (a top 72), I would’ve had Curry somewhere around 50th (as opposed to ignored) during the offseason because of his raw stuff and high K rate. Curry signed in June 2020 after failing through the truncated MLB draft. This is his walk year, but he’s giving the front office reason to delay that. 

Josh Trentadue put everything together as well. Corpus Christi does rank second in the league in strikeouts, but they’re not far below average in runs scored. 


Hi-A: Hub City 2, Bowling Green (TAM) 4
Hub City: 7 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 2 walks, 13 strikeouts
Record: 5-10, 6 GB, 39-42 overall

SP Enrique Segura: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 7 SO, 61 P / 42 S, 7.41 ERA
RP J’Briell Easley: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 5.19 ERA
RP Case Matter: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 SO, 9.00 ERA
LF Yeison Morrobel: 1-4, HR (12), .303/.377/.493
RF Maxton Martin: 2-4, 2B, .238/.301/.441
SS Luke Hanson: 2-4, 2 SB (9), .252/.325/.426

Enrique Segura hasn’t had a fun year, but credit him for a very strong outing against the Hot Rods, who are best in the league at avoiding strikeouts and transforming contact into hits. 


Lo-A: Hickory 3, at Augusta (ATL) 6
Hickory: 9 hits, 9 walks, 4 strikeouts
Opponent: 8 hits, 5 walks, 8 strikeouts
Record: 12-3, 1 G up, 46-33 overall

SP Aneudis Mejia: 2 IP, 3 H (1 HR), 2 R, 1 BB, 2 SO, 35 P / 22 S, 6.55 ERA
RP Jake Jekielek: 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 SO, 5.00 ERA
SS Yolfran Castillo: 1-4, 2B, BB, SB (36), .282/.394/.398
CF Marco Argudin: 3-3, 2 BB, .296/.438/.420
3B Angel Arredondo: 1-3, 2 BB, .240/.387/.394

Hickory couldn’t take enough advantage of 19 baserunners compared to Augusta’s 13. In the 1st, 3rd and 5th, Marco Argudin reached safely only to be erased on a Paulino Santana double play. In the 9th, Santana barely beat out what would have been a fourth GIDP. Not infrequently, a batter’s strong production in Arizona doesn’t make the trip to low-A, but 20-year-old Marco Argudin has been the squad’s best hitter since joining a month ago. 

Arizona
Joining the rookies in Surprise are IF/OF Casey Cook, 2025’s third-round pick and on the shelf all season, and oft-injured reliever Marc Church, who lost his 40 spot earlier this season. Cook homered and walked in four trips to the plate, while Church fanned two and allowed a hit in a scoreless frame. 19-year-old starter Seong-Jun Kim had one of his lesser outings on the mound (1.2 IP, 6 runners, 3 runs) but has excelled at the plate, hitting .321/.421/.528 with four homers and nine other extra-base hits in 38 games. 

DSL
One of Texas’s two Dominican Summer League squads lost 19-10 yesterday. The teams combined for 22 walks and hit batters and 20 strikeouts. The DSL understandably has a much higher walk rate than any other level, but 2026 has reached a new level. The league has more combined walks and hit batters (9,765) than strikeouts (9,722). 

Graphically, we can see that after nearly two decades of aloofness, the rates of BB+HBP and SO have finally decided to smooch.



Today’s Starters
AAA: Gonzales
AA: Townsend
Hi-A: Tiger
Lo-A: Morales

Five Years Ago Yesterday
I noted Marc Church’s 25% swinging-strike rate was the highest in the system. Cole Winn pitched just one inning for Frisco in anticipation of the possibility of a Futures Game appearance.